Friday, November 23, 2012

Big Data and Turkeys

Since a lot of people grumble about the "Big Data" meme -- "what is this _big_ data anyhow" -- I thought an analogy might help.


Big Data:Data::turkeys:chickens


A turkey is "really" just a big chicken.  Same limbs.  Same white and dark meat, same spices and herbs, similar taste.


But the scale of the turkey introduces new problems and requires new solutions:



  • Will it fit in your oven?

  • Will anything else fit in your oven if the turkey is there?

  • Where will you cook the others things if they won't fit?

  • Do you have a roasting pan and rack big enough for a turkey?

  • Can you muscle the turkey up and down-stairs to brine it in the cooler (the only place it will fit)?


Ok, I won't belabor the point: Big Data is different from data because the scale means your old techniques won't always work.


Have a great holiday.

Saturday, November 17, 2012

Big Data, Big Dreams

We've got to be at or near the Peak of Inflated Expectations in the Hype Cycle for Big Data.  It's the point where the meme seems so powerful that everyone wants to associate themselves with it.



But, as happened with data mining, unstructured data mining, and other fevered dreams of extracting ponies from the manure heap of raw data, what if the insights we all believe are lurking in our data... aren't lurking, or can't be lured out of hiding?


I ran across a couple of posts this week that bear on the issue.


A post from Jeff Jonas. who can always be relied on to smash false idols, deals with this question.  As Jonas says:



The problem being; often the business objectives (e.g., finding a bomb) are simply not possible given the proposed observation space (data sources).



Dan Woods re-posts another variation on this theme:



...the data created and maintained outside your company is becoming much more important than the data that you can acquire from internal sources. Yet, few companies realize this and fewer are taking action. Instead, they are suffering from the Data Not Invented Here Syndrome.



In other words, there's a difference between Big Data techniques and magic.  Sigh.


Your thoughts?

Friday, November 2, 2012

Where is the Big Data market at today?

Valhalla has been looking over the Big Data market, trying to answer the question: "how far along is the market?"  Are there really only four or so Big Data users -- the likes of Google, Yahoo, Facebook, and Twitter -- or are there more?  Is it an Early Adopter (or even merely a Tech Enthusiast market), or has it crossed the chasm?  What are the use cases?


Here are some of our findings:


1.The Big Data market is an Innovator/Early Adopter market overall, with possible Early Majority beachheads in web analytics and adtech


Although our interviewees described a larger number of use cases – “voice of the customer” analytics in marketing, M2M sensor processing, fraud and risk analysis, predictive analytics of various types – there was no hard evidence for widespread uses of Big Data today in these use cases, and many of the interviewees described them as “nascent” or “near-future” use cases.


There was, however, agreement that web analytics and adtech platforms were much further along in terms of using Big Data techniques for projects which were important to the customers’ businesses and mainstream today.


·         AdTech users employ Big Data technologies for real-time bidding (RTB) and managing and matching 3rd-party data to ad inventory or online user data (this area seems to be called “data management platforms”, an area where DemDex (which was acquired by Adobe for $xxxM) is perhaps the poster child.


·         Web analytics users employ Big Data technologies for indexing web pages and extracting performance indicators from raw weblogs.


2.     Informants believe that Hadoop and its stack is likely to remain the central platform for the Big Data market, but there is contradictory evidence


I don’t personally agree with this finding, but our interviewees all said, implicitly and explicitly, that the Hadoop stack was going to be the basis for Big Data technologies going forward.


One very thoughtful analyst said explicitly that the MapReduce/Hadoop stack would evolve over time, and that new technologies – like Dremel or Storm or Spanner and so forth – would be incorporated into the Hadoop ecosystem rather than creating new ecosystems of their own.


The only problem with this point of view is that “legacy” Big Data techniques – data warehousing, RDBMS, classic Business Intelligence suites – have a vast market share and a long history of productive use cases.   How these platforms will interoperate in the future is unknown, and whether an approach like Hadapt’s (where a “classic” RDBMS or BI technology suite runs within the Hadoop stack) will prevail is still too early to call.


3.     Wikibon’s analysis sizes the Big Data market today at $5B


A quantitative Wikibon analysis, which is quite thoughtful, concludes that $480M of this revenue comes from what they call “pure play” vendors (i.e., Hadoop infrastructure vendors and some other NoSQL or NewSQL) and the balance from legacy players.


Very curious about your thoughts on this.


 

Friday, October 26, 2012

Maybe SQL is the SQL of NoSQL

Derrick Harris has written the last couple of days a great deal on SQL front ends for MapReduce platforms.  This is a particularly meaty post.


What does it all mean?  That SQL support is a must-have for a self-respecting MR implementation, and everyone is rushing to provide it.


I've posted here, here, and here about the function that SQL plays in the legacy data fabric -- a fence separating data management from data analysis, for example -- and wondering out loud what will take its place in a NoSQL or PostSQL world.


This motion suggests that SQL may have some life in it yet.  Despite its RDBMS-ism, it is a rich data-analysis language, and it is the canvas upon which millions of data-analysis paintings have been painted.  It's asking a lot to just throw that away and go back to writing software in what are really still 3GLs to get at data.


In any case, it's an admission that the data fabric will be more PostSQL (including and building upon SQL) rather than NoSQL in the future.  And suggests that we need an expressive model of PostSQL data before we'll have an expressive interface language for it.


Your thoughts?

Friday, October 19, 2012

The (Increasingly Worthless) Network Effect

The other day I did what I do with increasing frequency: I wanted to meet an exec (call him "Exec A") at a startup company (call it "Company X") where Valhalla might invest, so I looked in LinkedIn to see who was connected with them.


An old friend from Palo Alto days was indeed one degree of separation from Exec A, but when I contacted my friend -- and, by the way, it was great to catch up with him on all kinds of things -- he said, "I hardly know A and I know nothing about X".  He had LinkedIn with A because they had worked together once, but it was not a meaningful connection.


There are pressures to make meaningless connections: pressures on LinkedIn, on Facebook, on Twitter.  And a kind of Gresham's Law takes over: the bad links drive out the good.


I've watched it happen with UseNet, with email, with the Web, with portals, with Quora, with the social sites cited above.


So maybe there isn't an absolute "network effect".  Maybe above a certain size the debasement of links takes over and the value of network declines.


I'm certain that smarter folks than I have worked this problem.  I'd welcome any links to discussions.


But, please, only the good links.

Monday, October 8, 2012

Is JSONiq the SQL of NoSQL?

In response to my post on "What will be the SQL of NoSQL"  William Candillon of 28msec wrote:



Our take is JSONiq, an extension of XQuery for JSON: http://jsoniq.org.



First I'd heard about JSONiq, and, truth be told, I didn't know a heck of a lot about JSON except the name.  Or about XQuery for that matter.


(One drawback of crossing over to the VC side is I fall inexorably behind on tech, despite my wishes and hopes.)


So I followed the link, looked at some of the code examples, and looked at 28msec.


I'm just digging into this, so would welcome any further pointers from the community.  SQL was not just a query language, but a frontier between the data layer and the rest of the app.  How does JSONiq get to that status?


Your thoughts?

Friday, October 5, 2012

Beginning of the End for the CIO?

As cloud computing really starts to take hold, some features of the landscape are becoming clearer. At least they seem clearer to me.


First, the disruption happens disruptively:



  • Through consumers and smaller business customers, rather than through the biggest enterprises.

  • Through applications converting to SaaS delivery and non-critical, experimental, or bursty infrastructure rather than mission-critical infrastructure.

  • Through "consumerization of IT", where demand for iPads and cool apps drives the need for new delivery models


Second, the disruption will move upward to larger organizations, first through private clouds, then hybrid clouds, and then full-dress clouds.  (Of course, larger organizations use SaaS applications and suffice iPads and cool apps today, so they need some kind of cloud solutions today.)


Third, however, is interesting: if IT moves out of the enterprise and into the cloud, why do you need an IT organization over time... and why do you need a CIO?


The CIO's job is to make sure that the house IT plant supports the mission of the organization.  Already other functions are trying to make IT decisions without the CIO: implementing Salesforce, constructing mobile apps, buying kit for websites.  It stands to reason that the CIO's job loses power over time.


CIOs have barely been able to pry themselves free from reporting to CFOs.  Will they report to CMOs next?

Monday, October 1, 2012

My first #MakerFaire was Swell

I went up to the World Maker Faire in New York this past weekend, and had a great time despite iffy weather (relevant because the bulk of the event was outdoors).  The lockpicking course from @Toool alone was worth the price of admission, but I also bent some plexiglass with the Institute for Exploratory Research, a hacker space in NJ and had some paella from huge woks that @NickPinkston told me was "a MakerFaire tradition". 


I've begun to think of the Maker Movement as having three threads, each of which was present to some extent at the Faire:



  1. Kids.  America gives lip service to the wonder of children, but doesn't always deliver.  Kids were first at Maker Faire.  Exhibits were geared to them, people were giving way to them, and they were clearly front and center in the Maker Movement.

  2. Scruffy Hacker-ness.  This of course gives a lot of personality to the Maker Movement.  The people who were running the lockpicking event, for example, obviously and repeatedly asked participants not to the break the law.  But the subtext was, "if there's a lock you want to open you should be able to do so."  I bought a t-shirt that said, "If you can't open it, you don't own it."

  3. Rennaisance Fair for American Manufacturing.  This is the meme I'm trying to invest in, and you had to poke around to find traces of it at the Faire, but it was there.  Next-gen manufacturing companies like AutoDesk and Valhalla's portfolio company GeoMagic were present and sponsoring and clearly hedging their bets with small stakes in the success of the Maker Movement.  There will be more.

Friday, September 28, 2012

Another Reason Why We Need a Revolution in Manufacturing: Get Legacy Kruft Out of the Supply Chain

Through Indiegogo, a crowdfunding site, I backed a project called Bug-A-Salt, an air gun that fires a load of salt at flies and other flying insects.  As we say a Valhalla, a small bet on a big win.


Here's a picture of the device.


 


 


BUG-A-SALT 20120910022859-bugasalt-exterminating-4359-500x416


The entrepreneur, Lorenzo Maggiore, has overcome all design obstacles and produced, with an overseas manufacturer, a first run:


 



Lorenzo Maggiore posted an announcement 17 days ago



A humble thank you from the BUG-A-SALT Team to each and every one of our 10,768 contributors. Your energy, enthusiasm and incredible support has inspired us in a way that was impossible to imagine only 66 days ago when the campaign was launched. The final hard work now begins to get over 21,400 guns in the hands of the new BUG-A-SALT army spread out in 70 different countries around the world. Check back here for frequent updates on delivery dates and thanks in advance for your patience—we are building the business not only right under our feet but right in front of your eyes.
Thanks again,
Lorenzo


Now the fun begins.  Lorenzo is trying to import the first 7000 units, and runs afoul of one of those legacy constructs, government and Customs.  Here's the deal:



Lorenzo Maggiore posted an announcement 4 hours ago


Post Campaign Update #3


To all our restless and excited Indiegogo supporters: Below is a letter from our Custom’s agent yesterday (names blocked) regarding our first container load of 7,000 guns now being inspected in US Customs. Please remember and forgive us—we are first time business people trying to deliver on a magnitude of orders much, much bigger than we ever anticipated. The logistics of manufacturing, ocean transport, Customs, and fulfillment are complicated. We underestimated timeframes but we are learning and we are trying our best! Hang tight and get ready to pity the fly….


xxx,


Since container is at exam site on the floor, if it gets released tomorrow, they will still have to re-load and will give us until Monday to pick up without charging storage. I just left a message for Customs to find out status and I have to wait for their call back. I also called the exam site and they advised that CPSC is also examining this container since these are air guns. The lady at exam site reminded me that today is just the second day that exam is in progress and Customs/CPSC have 5 working days to decide what they want to do so that would be until next Tuesday. I’ll keep checking and provide status daily.


Best regards,
xxxxxxxxx, CHB
Assistant Import Manager





 


The problem?  Customs doesn't know what to do with something like this.  Years ago, a scientist I worked for was telling a story about a colleague of his trying to import a box of (harmless) microorganisms into Turkey.


The Customs rep asked what it was.


The scientist said it was microorganisms.


The rep asked what a "microorganism" was.


The scientist said it was a tiny animal.


The rep asked how many he was importing.


The scientist said "about 100 million."


The rep looked up "100 million small animals" in his book of customs duties and proposed to charge the scientist a huge sum.


Shorter supply chains -- which the Maker Movement and other technologies can bring us -- avoid legacy entities like governments and Customs authorities.


And get us our Bug-A-Salt units faster.




 

Monday, September 24, 2012

DreamForce 2012

Went to DreamForce last week for a couple of days.  My first time.  I'm always intrigued by companies that build of an ecosystem of contributors, and had wanted to see this event for that reason.


I was very pleasantly surprised.  I think of Salesforce itself as a Web 1.0 application (or maybe 0.9).  It was a world-beater when it took down Siebel, but the whole world of web applications has moved forward quite a bit.  As Salesforce admin at Valhalla Partners, I have a heck of a time getting people to log their deals (we use it to track deal flow), and at least part of it is the clunky interface.  Not being able to see your subtask and your context at the same time is a huge liability of the Web 1.0 world (and only partially cured in Web 2.0 btw).


But the ecosystem around Salesforce is really vigorous.  There's a lot of app work with first-rate UX.  And, if you think about it, Salesforce may be the #1 Web platform for databases about people and people-oriented workflow.  Certainly Microsoft Dynamics and Google apps can't touch it.


I don't know if we'll find investable opportunities around this ecosystem, but I'll give it a serious look.


Let me know if there's anything you see that could use our capital...

Friday, September 21, 2012

Graph processing and graph processing tech

I've been reading a bit about graph processing lately, and the tech that supports it.


I've thought that relational dbs were useless for graph problems since maybe 1985, when I started trying to keep my financial records in a database and found that it was nearly impossible to track the basis of a stock using the relational paradigm because it had to iterate over all the historic transactions for a given ticker and essentially compute what I read was called a "transitive closure".


I wasn't any database god in those days, but it seemed to me that there were an awful lot more problems in the world that required transitive closures than those requiring select and project, or even select, project, and some reasonable number of joins.


Well, of course graph problems don't do very well in the relational formalism, but graph formalisms don't do very well in the bounded computation formalism.  It's easy to get swamped with nodes tweedling to one another.


I read the paper on Pregel with interest (and, of course, Google is probably on to Pregel 3.0 by now, or they wouldn't have published the paper :-)).  But I'm curious to hear more about other approaches.


Your thoughts?

Friday, September 14, 2012

Anonymous browsing and the future of advertising

I've started to look at anonymous browsing.


So far, the schemes that are really anonymous are pretty kludge-y.  It looks like you find a path through cooperative servers to near your endpoint, and then, like Foxface from The Hunger Games, sprints over the last link or two to the destination.  Effective, if what you want is to keep from being tracked.  But not easy to use, and probably not destined for the mainstream.


Is this the best outcome?  Widespread use of anonymizers leads to a "distributed denial of data" attack on brands and merchants.  I have no great love for brands and merchants -- they certainly treat consumers pretty cavalierly -- but the outcome I want is to have (moe) power over them instead of them having (more) power over me, and ultimately, perhaps, to share power so that we both get part of what we want.  It's the Intention Economy all over again (I know, I've been on this like a broken record, but Searl's book is a great set of ideas).

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Pivots and Faceplants

We didn't even have a word for "pivot" until a couple of years ago.


Companies "changed their strategy", or "re-examined their business", or "took a fresh look".


Then all of a sudden "pivot" burst on the scene, and business became more like downhill skiing or dancing than war.  Everyone began to pivot.


Unfortunately, not all pivots are alike.  Valhalla's Managing Partner Art Marks distinguishes between pivots and "faceplants" as follows:


Pivot:



  1. New Strategy: Redefine mission based on market feedback, evidence of shortcomings.

  2. Capabilities: Exploits existing capabilities

  3. Evidence: Strong evidence of success on new path

  4. Plan: Predicatable requirements for cash required to break even


Faceplant



  1. New Strategy: Redefine mission because old one didn't work

  2. Capabilities: Imaginary and exaggerated new capaibilites added to enterprise

  3. Evidence: More hope than evidence

  4. Plan: Future cash requirements still uncertain.


Admittedly, many Faceplants disguise themselves at Pivots.  But still worth testing for one vs. the other.  Well worth it.


Thoughts?

Friday, September 7, 2012

More on FOSS and Utopian Socialism

When I blogged about this yesterday I was unaware that the topic I was broaching -- the similarities between the Free and Open source movement and utopian socialism -- was a well-traveled topic.


My friend Rob Atkinson (for whose Information Technology & Innovation Foundation I am an advisor) turned me on to an article by Milton Mueller on "Info-Communism" which, despite the provocative title, is actually a careful review of the debate between the open-sourcers and the information-property-ites and well worth reading if you want to understand what is morally and politically good about open source.


Meanwhile, my intent was to discuss whether or not open-source approaches ehance or stifle innovation.  My working hypothesis for some years has been that open-source code enhances innovation in areas that use the code (duh) but stifle innovation in the open-source area itself, and that open source is appropriate for software projects where stability and quality is more important than innovation.


I still sort of think this, although I'm open to counter-examples.

Thursday, September 6, 2012

FOSS and utopian socialism

Continuing to read "Intention Economy" with great interest.  Chapter 12 ("Free and Open") on the connection between "free and open source software" ("FOSS") arrested me.


Searls argues that "...free markets on the Internet depend on FOSS code and development methods".  I'll admit that I'm ambivalent about open source.  I made a good living in the '80's and '90's from proprietary shrink-wrap software on the Microsoft platform.  It was a great platform, chock-a-block with innovation, and we made decent livings while doing work that was fun, interesting, and arguably benefitted society.


Open source has changed all that.  The price of software has been radically lowered, and while in each case users of the software (who typically are developers themselves) benefit from high-quality ubiquitous software, it's hurt the software coder in general and the American software coder in particular.  (See "Entrepreneurs are the New Labor" for one view on this, for example: Rao doesn't blame FOSS for the current state of affairs, but he is actually somewhat murky on how it has come about.  His conclusions and my hypothesis may not be inconsistent.)


In any case, Searls describes the FOSS world in something like the same terms Marx used to describe his Utopian vision of communism.  Here is Searls (op. cit., Kindle edition, Location 2286) (quoting Yochai Benkler ["Coase's Penguin, or Linux and the Nature of the Firm"] as well):


 



Active and useful FOSS code is social as well as personal, in the sense that the writers of free and open code need to cooperate with each other. Yochai Benkler explains this in both “Coase’s Penguin, or Linux and the Nature of the Firm” and The Wealth of Networks. In “Coase’s Penguin,” he writes,


The central organizing principle is that the software remains free of most constraints on copying and use common to proprietary materials. No one “owns” the software in the traditional sense of being able to command how it is used or developed, or to control its disposition …


I suggest that we are seeing … the broad and deep emergence of a new, third mode of production in the digitally networked environment. I call this mode “commons-based peer-production,” to distinguish it from the property- and contract-based models of firms and markets. Its central characteristic is that groups of individuals successfully collaborate on large-scale projects following a diverse cluster of motivational drives and social signals, rather than either market prices or managerial commands.



And here is Marx, in "The Communist Manifesto":



Of course, in the beginning, this cannot be effected except by means of despotic inroads on the rights of property, and on the conditions of bourgeois production; by means of measures, therefore, which appear economically insufficient and untenable, but which, in the course of the movement, outstrip themselves, necessitate further inroads upon the old social order, and are unavoidable as a means of entirely revolutionising the mode of production.


In place of the old bourgeois society, with its classes and class antagonisms, we shall have an association, in which the free development of each is the condition for the free development of all.



Both authors have the theme of disruption of old proprietary relations and the establishment of a new order where price, property, and contract do not direct the course of production but rather the overall needs of the community.


I'm not likening the two in order to besmirch FOSS, but rather to draw attention to its utopian character and to probe its actual underpinning.


Just as communism, in practice, required an absolutist state to order "the people" to do "the rights things", so FOSS, in practice, requires a system of "tithing" where big tech companies -- Google, IBM, and others are mentioned in Searls -- need to subsidize the open source community by grants of time, money, or both.  The instantiation of communism, of course, was the very opposite of the dream.  What can we say about the instantiation of FOSS?


In the areas where open source has had the biggest inroads -- Internet infrastructure, arguably, operating systems -- innovation has languished.  We are still playing with VMS and Unix in one form or another, after 30 years.  And the Web stack, despite its creakiness, is not particularly changing.


Compare this to the Big Data area, where innovation was sparked by proprietary projects at Google and others.  We have new approaches, new architectures, and ample innovation.  This innovation is, of course, now spilling out as open source in the Hadoop ecosystem.  It will be interesting to see how much further innovation occurs in the areas that are now open-sourced (as opposed to the application or other layers that are benefitted by the existence of the new "free" stuff).


Jury is still out for me, but I can only offer two cheers for open source.  The vision is swell; the free stuff is awesome.  The net result may be suboptimal.


Your thoughts?


 

Friday, August 24, 2012

@hbaltazar451 clarifies "all-flash" vs. "hybrid" storage array use cases

It's easy to love Henry Baltazar's work at 451 Research.  He's technically deep, he doesn't confuse technology and business, and he speaks his mind.  I always enjoy his thinking.


In July he put out a report "Is it Time to Go All-In on All-Flash Arrays" discussing the pros and cons of all-flash storage arrays as opposed to "hybrid" systems where, essentially, the flash component acts like an accelerator or cache (although vendors of hybrid systems vigorously deny that their systems employ flash as "mere" cache, the differences seem like shallow semantics).


Baltazar suggests that the "all-flash" and "hybrid" systems are actually two use cases: "all-flash" is "performance" and "hybrid" (especially with a SATA/SAS backend) is "value".  Makes sense.


In the all-flash category, he distinguishes between "high-end" vendors who go all-out for perofmrnace (IOPS and latency) and "midrange" vendors (like our company SolidFire) who aim to build workalike systems (albeit at a much higher performance level) for existing SANs.  Again, a valid distinction (although the term "midrange" for our guys stings :-)).


Worth a read, although unfortunately you need a 451 subscription to do so.

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

@dsearls teaches us how carriers turn themselves into dumb pipes

This "Intention Economy" book is terrific.


Chapter 14 deals with "net-heads" (those who appreciate how the network effect powers the 'net) and "bell-heads" (those who want to extract a toll for operating 'net infrastructure).  Carriers are, of course, bell-heads.


Carriers are also quite concerned about turning into dumb pipes.  They scrutinize every use of their right-of-way to find extra opportunities for tarriff and control.  They are determined not "get turned into a dumb pipe."


What @dsearls makes clear is that this very behavior turns them into dumb pipes.  They turn themselves into dumb pipes.  By offering only obstacles to use of their right-of-way, they insure that every interesting use will try to go elsewhere, and that every interesting use will try to minimize contact with them.


I'm not expressing myself very well here, but I think the point is clear: the way not to be a dumb pipe is to embrace the diversity -- and the independence -- of the various uses that can be made of your pipe, and think of a few of your own.  Neither behavior is a carrier strong suit.


Your thoughts?

Saturday, August 18, 2012

I @dsearls Intention Economy #vrm

I've been wisecracking the last few years about "cookie-ing corporations". The idea is that "they" cookie "us" all the time to see what we're up to and sell us junk. Why shouldn't we cookie them, find out what they're up to, and see whether we want to buy stuff from them or not.

Just read about half of "Intention Economy" on the flight out to the Bay Area, and not only does Doc Searls believe what I believe, he's founded (or at least given voice to) a whole movement for doing just this, returning power to consumers.

His point -- among others -- is that this is exactly what the Internet is intended for: interactive exchange of software-mediated negotiations.

I love it. I love VRM (vendor relationship management, the software category which will provide tools to consumers). I love the idea that advertising will transform from yammering into more sophisticated persuasion in niches left over from areas not covered by CRM/VRM interactions.

Read the book. It's really interesting.

Your thoughts?

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Dumb Defaults @Zazzle

I don't want to be one of those bloggers who kvetches about bad experiences out on the 'net.  Goodness knows there's enough of them, but probably not optimal to dwell on them.


But this experience with Zazzle has broader implications, so let me rant a bit.


I've wanted to try out business cards with QR codes on them for a few months.  Finally got around to it, using scientific methods (i.e. Google search) to find vendors who could give me a small pack of cards for not too much.


Zazzle had an appealing SEO-friendly name and looked good, so I ordered a pack of cards from them.


You order by typing the card info (name, addr, etc.) into a web form, which also shows a graphic of the QR code that will appear on the card.


I assumed -- yes, I know what "assumed" means -- that the QR code default would be the text info on the card.


When my first set of cards came, the QR code produced a web page at Zazzle which at first glance looked like an ad for their QR codes.  I sent off a complaint to Zazzle customer service, and they told me:



  1. The cards I had were the ones I had ordered

  2. If I wanted to change the QR code they would, out of the goodness of their hearts, allow me credit for the deck and re-ship.


I nosed around the Zazzle site trying to find a place to customize the QR code, and slowly realized that the web page that was the QR default was a page for typing in text information that would then build a new QR code.


So I retyped my info into the QR code generator form, and ended up with a QR code which was the digest of my text info from the business card.  Got a new deck.  Happy ending.


I suppose.  Wouldn't it have been easier to have the default QR code be the info on the card?  Wouldn't it have better to show what the QR code on the card would yield?  (You could see what it read to, but you had to click to another form to do so.)


Dumb defaults.


Zazzle is presumably a decent company.  They let me re-do the cards.  They answered my customer service inquiry promptly.


But because their product has weak defaults I probably won't be back.  And I wrote this.


Your thoughts?

Monday, July 30, 2012

Will 2012 be the year of iTV?

Decent article by this title in Electronic Retailer caught my interest, since a big part of what I do is try to be right about what year is "the year" of <Whatever>.


The author looks at iTV as a consequence of 1) video-on-demand increasing and morphing into "appointment viewing" (meaning TV anywhere, anyscreen, anywhen) and 2) direct response technologies like AdWidgets ("bound" and "unbound": see the article) and, the Holy Grail, a "universal TV buy button".


She cites a source to the effect that 51% of digital TV households today have "iTV technology available", which is a somewhat squishy phrase although an impressive percentage.


There's still something broadcast-ey about this.  You get to pick what you watch and when, but all the interaction is you picking what brands will sell you or pitch to you.  Kind of a corporate picture of "interaction".


My picture of interaction is more like the Web: you get to "surf", you get to yak with others, you get to do goofy time-wasthing stuff that doesn't transact or present you with a brand "message".  When will iTV get to that milestone?


 

Friday, July 27, 2012

How will the Maker Movement break out?

The news that littleBits -- a Maker startup which sells "mashup" hardware electronics kits for children of all ages -- got a $3.65M investment from True Ventures and others was terrific.  And well-deserved.  Ayah Beir is a visionary CEO in the mold of Steve Jobs and Bill Gates, although, to be fair, the canvas seems smaller.


And that's the problem.  It's terrific for a Maker startup to get funded, and to get interest from the likes of us VCs.


But I keep coming back to an analogy.  1977 or so.  The Homebrew Computer Clubs are all over.  Hackers are hacking hardware and software.  Scoffers are scoffing that it's just a hobby.


Two things happened: The Steves built the Apple II, and Dan Bricklin built VisiCalc.


The original "killer app".  Suddenly the $2000 price tag of an Apple II didn't seem so egregious.  Suddenly the work of getting an Apple II to work didn't seem so onerous.  It had a purpose.


I love littleBits, and I love kids and the hacking imagination.  I don't think it's the purpose of Making.


I don't think 3-d printers are the purpose of Making either.  They're very cool, and they are a kind of vivid logo for the movement.  But they are not what will make Making indispensable, that will make the costs not seem egregious, what will make the set-up not seem onerous.


What will?  Don't know.  Looking for it.


Thoughts?

Monday, July 23, 2012

What does "Big Data Storage" Look Like?

When we went from PC apps to Web apps we lost a bunch of things, but the worst was: the UI and UX went to hell.  Even with all the rich interaction add-ons, Web apps today are just not as (for want of a better word) delightful as native apps were, and won't be for some time.  That's probably reason #1 for mobile apps today: they are much more delightful than anything achievable through a web browser.


There's an analogy with Big Data: the paradigm of distributing computation to the storage (which I talked about a bit last fall) is pretty powerful, but it's a step backwards in terms of storage.  There were all kinds of good reason to centralize storage (or at least decouple it from computing), and while putting compute next to storage makes all kinds of sense, you now have the move the data into the storage that's near the compute before you can compute on it.  Not bad, perhaps, if you have to do a whole passle of computing on a relatively static batch of data, but a real non-starter in near-real-time or even regularly-changing batches of data.


Which should be leading some teams to think from the ground up about how to design a storage and compute system that manages to distribute storage with respect to computing but centralize it with respect to locality or reference and management.


We've seen a couple of ideas in this area, and would like to see more.


Your thoughts?

Friday, July 20, 2012

Fred Wilson on "Free and Paid"

I retweeted a very thoughtful post by Fred Wilson on "Free vs. Paid."


Wilson argues that free and freemium (a term he invented; I had no idea) are not the enemies of the consumer, and advertising is not evil.  Key quote:



This post is in reaction to the idea that services should be paid to ensure that they are appropriately focused on the consumer/user as opposed to the marketer/advertiser/sponsor.


Let's start with advertising. I do not believe it is evil. In fact, I believe it is a fantastic way to support services that want the broadest adoption and want to be free. 



This is true, but not completely relevant.  Advertising is not evil, but it's conflicted.  If a business is supplying a product or service to you, and someone else is paying for it, you will receive a suboptimal product or service whereever your interests and those of the payor diverge.


We see this in online, in politics, in television, in video, in audio.


And not just in ad-sponsored businesses.  Think of auto-body work and health insurance, for instance.  Anywhere that Jill pays for a service that Joe consumes, conflict can arise.


So the point is not to avoid ad-sponsored businesses, but to make sure that everyone understands, in plain and simple terms. the points of conflict and the quidae pro quo (if that's the right plural).


Thoughts?


 

Monday, July 16, 2012

Advertising on Social Media

David Card, as usual, has a very thoughtful post on the troubled adolescence of social media advertising.


The problem, as I see it, is figuring out the right way to introduce advertising into what is essentially a bunch of conversations.  The current approach is tantamount to stepping up to a couple of people talking and saying, "Your teeth will be whiter if you brush with Pepsodent".  It's moronic.  How can something like that be an effective approach?


(And it doesn't get much more effective if you have a video of someone singing "You'll wonder where the yellow went/When you brush your teeth with Pepsodent".  It's the jarring disconnect between the conversation and the ad that causes trouble.)


A better approach: wear a t-shirt with the ad as you talk to your social mates.  They'll ask about it: "What makes you so hot for Pepsodent."  And then you tell them, "It makes my teeth whiter."


A lot of vendors are going after this sort of thing (FULL DISCLOSURE: our portfolio company Adaptly is one of them), but no one's figured out yet how to work an ad into a conversation in just that natural a manner.  Big unsolved problem.


Your thoughts?

Sunday, July 15, 2012

Broiled Fish Redux (but with a picture)

Same drill this week as last: stop off at Black Salt Fish Market on the way home, pick up whatever looks most glistening, and prepare it simply as part of the Great Circle of Life.

This week the fish that called to me was barramundi, and I got a beautiful sweet-smelling fillet for Debbie and me.  And I accompanied it with Israeli couscous and a salad (not shown).

2012-07-13_19-30-07_644

Google software, flies in the ointment

As discussed in an earlier post I'm embarked on a slow but presumably irreversible journey from "thick" apps to thin ones, from desktop to multiple clients to cloud.


Part of the lure is that most of the software, most of the time, is kind of "nifty": it's satisfying, pleasurable, fun to use in a way that I think lies at the heart of successful software.  It feels right.


Google software mostly fits into this category.  I like gmail a lot, I like the rest of the suite.  I haven't moved over from Office to Google Apps in any major way yet, but it could happen.


But Google doesn't act like the kind of software company I used to work for.  If something goes wrong, they don't necessarily man up and they don't necessarily fix it.


Take my Google Chat voice/video plugin.  I hadn't used it in a week or so, and when I went to make a call from Chat I got a notice that the plugin needed to be installed.  "That's funny, it's already installed," I said, but went to the screen and pushed the button to install anyhow.  Nothing happened.  I can't make a call and I can't re-install.


I find getting to Help in google software to be very problematic, but I found some kind of help search screen somewhere behind my profile photo and searched for help on this topic.  Nothing.


I then do what I do nowadays with most cloud software, Google-d the  broad we for it.  Found some threads, but nothing official.


Finally I found a reference to a "known issues" notice in Google help (why it wasn't discoverable by search I daren't ask the search king) and find out that this plugin problem is a known problem and Google is working "hard" to resolve it.


Now I know that Google doesn't always live up to their "do no evil" stuff, but telling me that my help query was, in effect, "very important to us" was a nasty reminder that Google's main effort here was to keep disruption of their operations by us needy users to a minimum.


All very American-business-as-usual-in-the-teens, but with a wrinkle: a cloud company has no main number to call, no Vice President of Customer Service to write.  I can only step up the game, as I'm doing now, by complaining about them online.


I wish they were more accountable.


Your thoughts?

Monday, July 9, 2012

Thanks, @jlecat and Tom Lang from @videologygroup for bringing me NoSqlTapes

I look to Tom Lang, all-star CTO at our video advertising company Videology Group, for insights into digital advertising technology, Big Data, and cloud, because he worries about them every day and, unlike many, worries constructively by finding resources that will keep Videology out in front.


When I asked him for background about NoSQL/NewSQL, he turned me on to The NoSQL Tapes site, which is collection of roughly hour-long video interviews with the rock stars of the NoSQL movement.


I'll admit it's an effort in today's information-snacking world to pay attention to anything for an hour, but even in smaller snacks it's worth it.  What a great site to find out more background on NoSQL.


As it turns out, Jerome LeCat from Scality is one of the sponsors (or THE sponsor?) of NoSQLTapes.  Jerome (Twitter @jlecat) is a brilliant guy well worth listening to in his own right.


NoSQLTapes was a terrific idea.  I would welcome the same in other emerging technology areas.

Saturday, July 7, 2012

Broiled Cod, Corn on the Cob, Tossed Green Salad

It’s too soon to call this a CrummyCook pivot, but last night’s meal was a departure from the “look it up in Epicurious/use signature ingredients” style that marked the CrummyCook’s Early Period.

There was a cod dish in Epicurious that involved a few unusual ingredients, and involved poaching the cod in parchment paper.  Well, baking the cod en papillote.  I had printed out the shopping list and was preparing to go out into the 105 degree heat when I said, “what the heck am I jumping through hoops here, the point is not to take on the bizarre but to serve good-tasting food and spell Debbie as household cook.”

With these bracing words, I got out Mark Bittman and made cod marinated in the vinaigrette from the previous night’s salad, corn on the cob, and a tossed green salad with (thankfully) a different dressing.

The only novelty was broiling the fish a la Bittman in a cast-iron skillet that had been heated up to the CrummyCook’s usual “smelting steel” temperature and then drizzled with olive oil.

All in all, pretty good.  Debbie liked it, and maybe it is the start of something new.

Friday, July 6, 2012

What will the SQL of NoSQL be?

Back in October I posted about the virtues of SQL and asked the question: what will replace it in a NoSQL/NewSQL hybrid world?


Don't get me wrong: I dislike SQL as a programming language; I think it's an awful kludge, and something inside me cringes every time I use it.  (Although, to be fair to SQL, I kind of feel that way about all the functional programming languages I've ever used: Prolog, (functional) LISP.  Functional programming bugs me the same way having to wait for the waiter to bring water bugs me when I'm thirsty and I can see the pitcher of water eight feet away at the waitstaff podium... but we disgress.)


But SQL has the virtue of separating the details of data storage and retrieval from the details of application logic, and we badly need something like that going forward.


As it happens, the relational paradigm itself is under attack from NoSQL approaches (or it should be; I never really liked the relational paradigm much, either; it has a heck of a time with anything "complex" (join-y, recursive-y, set-y), and doesn't do such a great job on things that are simple, either.  But we digres...)


So maybe we can kill two birds with one stone: advance beyond the relational paradigm and start an API to data (even if not yet a language) that is agnostic about the structured-ness of the underlying data.


I guess I'm going to out completely here, and say that I also hate XML sublanguages by and large.  They are bloated, difficult to compute on, and PL/1-ish.  With exceptions, perhaps.


But something on the order of abstraction of RDF sounds like the "new relational" to me.  Even after the rise and fall of the "triples empire" some years ago.  A simple atomic relationship binding two entities together seems like a logical place to start.


As usual, I'm way out of my depth here.  I hope someone who actually knows something about these matters will step in.  But I do feel obliged to bring the matter up.


Your thoughts?

Monday, July 2, 2012

My Slow But Steady Journey From "Thick" Apps to Cloud Apps

As I said in an article I wrote for the Cutter IT Journal in May, if I had lost my PC's connection to the Internet even as late as 1999 or 2000 it would have been an inconvenience, but if I lost it today the thing would be close to a brick as far as its use for me.


Times have changed.


I've migrated, slowly but steadily, from thick-client PC-based applications to cloud-based applications that run on my PC, my Android phone, and my iPad.


I still love the rich interaction and aptness of the interaction in a good thick app.  Even today the JavaScript etc. interactive tricks don't hold a candle to a good local interaction with both UI/UX and business logic right nearby rather than a variable-latency roundtrip away.


But today I prize the ability to run on all my clients more than I prize the excellence of the interaction on any of them.  And that factor -- the need for sync -- has driven me inexorably toward cloud-based apps.


Some of which are quite good.  Don't get me wrong.  Apps like ToodleDo and Zite and even some of the Twitter client stuff are getting there.  But I'm using them on one platform because I want to access them on all.


Thoughts on your app migration towards the cloud?

Friday, June 29, 2012

Data Management Infrastructure

I hate coining buzzwords.  And maybe I didn't even coin this one.  But we need some phrase to describe the following problem:


Data now comes in two processable flavors: structured and unstructured.  And stacks now exist for processing either flavor.  But each world is undergoing transformation.  And how the two worlds will be combined is up in the air.


Unstructured data: whether or not the Hadoop ecosystem is The Answer, there is vigorous experimentation with how to work with massive amounts and velocities of unstructured data, and there are some emerging norms.  Other NoSQL approaches remain as alternatives, and there will probably be use cases for almost all of them.  We are not even near the end of the beginning when it comes to defining how unstructured data systems will interface with applications (where is the NoSQL SQL?), and we are IMHO still at the very beginning of understanding what storage systems are optimized for these workloads.


Structured data: with NewSQL databases, it is clear how to interface them with applications but far from clear how they work with storage systems, particularly SSD-based storage systems.  Jury is out as well on how to multiplex the different databases in a use case.


I call of this "data management infrastructure", and it seems to me like an emerging big design problem.


Thoughts?  Who's working on this?  Where should we invest?

Monday, June 25, 2012

What is a Big Wind?

I blogged here last week about my "big wind/capable team" heuristic for picking startup investments.  Today I'd like to go into a bit more detail about the "big wind" part.


A Big Wind is a transformation of a large customer spend from one category to another.  It's almost the same thing as Geoffrey Moore's idea of a "tornado", which is a phase in a market when the (relatively) vast Early Majority group decides to adopt a new approach.  Moving suddenly from "show me" to "must have", the Early Majority creates a "tornado" of demand.  Examples: the PC "revolution", networked storage systems, scale-out servers.


Smartphones are in the midst of a tornado-like Big Wind.  Sweeping away RIM and Nokia and perhaps Microsoft.  Sweeping in Apple and Google.


Maybe tornadoes are the only kind of Big Wind that exists, but in any case, most of the examples I can think of are tornadoes.  Maybe the ERP implementation at the end of the last century was a Big Wind without being a tornado.  It was driven in large part by Y2K FUD, not by a transformation of the Early Majority to a new approach.


Great example of not a Big Wind: healthcare IT so far.  Big market, but no transformation of spend (yet).  Right now only early adopters are embracing end-to-end IT for their health businesses.  The early majority is hanging back, saying "show me."  It may tip.


Your thoughts?

Friday, June 22, 2012

The Euro Crisis and VC strategy

Watching the Euro community grapple with and fail (or so it seems) under the onslaught of treaty country performance, I'm minded of how I think about VC strategy, and what it means for what they're doing.


I rate investments by two criteria: Is it a Big Wind, and is it a Capable Team.  There is a third as well, but it's irrelevant to this discussion.


A Big Wind is a market opportunity where lots of money will change hands.  And Capable Team is a team that can seize the opportunity and ride it out despite all twists and turns (and there are always twists and turns).


So we invest, and things don't go well.  Like Greece, the company's income is less than its expenses.  Over time.  Repeatedly.  Without apparent hope of things turning around on their own.


I've developed a 2x2 grid for asking what to do with a company based on evolving circumstances.  It looks like this:





Presentation1.pptx
Download this file


If the wind is big and the team is capable, you don't need to do anything: you let 'em rip.


If the wind is big but the team isn't capable, you topgrade the team until they become capable.


If the wind is small but the team is capable, you pivot.  You find a new wind, or a better take on the existing wind.


If the wind is small and the team is incapable, you let it go.  You sell it, you shut it down.  You dispose of it.


The Euro community is foundering.  I don't know enough to know if the wind is small or the team incapable, or both, but someone should make this analysis if they want the community to survive.


What the community is doing instead, and what a lot of VC firms do instead, is probably the worst of all possible worlds: put the incapable team on a starvation budget so they can't possibly take advantage of a big wind, but at least they won't go under right away.


It's neither fish nor flesh nor fowl.  And it won't serve the Euro community any better than the same strategy serves us in trying to get our startups to thrive.


Your thoughts?

Monday, June 18, 2012

The Maker Movement and Me

I got an Arduino for Fathers' Day from my son, and an Arduino Cookbook from my wife.


The Maker Movement just went personal for me.


In case you don't know what the Maker Movement is, it's a bottom-up movement of hardware tinkerers, largely hobbyists today, which I believe will revolutionize manufacturing and basically end the Industrial Revolution (or cause a new one, depending on how you look at it).


In case you don't know what an Arduino is, it's a popular open-source hardware module with a programmable controller and some I/O junk that sells for ~$20 and is pretty easy to program.


(That's pretty easy for me to see; I haven't programmed it yet.  Catch up with me a few weeks and see how easy I think it is.)


First application?  My son suggested I make a gizmo to automatically power-cycle my cable modem.  Not a bad idea, although my ISP says you should disconnect the coax cable as part of the process, which means some way to interrupt the coax.


First step in any project of this source: scour what my son calls "the InterTubes" for prior art.  I'll start on that this week.


Very cool stuff, at least for me.

Friday, June 15, 2012

What the PC Revolution of the '80's can teach us about the "consumerization of IT" in the Teens

The Cutter IT Journal just published an article of mine along these lines.  I'm a big fan of analogies, and the '80's presents a lot of analogies to today's world: new disruptive platform, specialized apps as the key, ultimate disruption of an entire IT paradigm.


Here's a link to the Cutter IT Journal issue.  For some legacy-ish reason, Cutter Consortium will let you download a pdf of the journal but won't put it online.


As always, let me know your thoughts.

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

United/Continental Seat Snafu 2: The Wrath of Khan

I finally received a reply to my email to United/Continental re the Seat Snafu on May 18.


As one might expect, it was empty, impersonal, and non-committal:

























11:46 PM (9 hours ago)


 










to me






Dear Mr. Gordon:

Thank you for contacting United Airlines. 

I am sorry we were unable to respond to your request sooner.  The merger
of United and Continental Airlines has been a successful one, but there
have certainly been challenges.

  An airline merger of this size has never been accomplished before now. 
Some facets of our airline may be different, but our fundamental
commitment to our valued customers has not wavered.  As a MileagePlus
member, your business has never been more important.  Please be assured
we do understand your concerns, and they have been documented for review
and appropriate internal action. 

Please visit us online at www.united.com as additional travel needs
arise.  Many inquiries about our MileagePlus program can be answered
through our online FAQ. 

While my reply is brief and not as detailed as I would like, I want you
to know I very much appreciate your business.  To thank you for your
patience and loyalty, I have added bonus MileagePlus miles to your
account.  You will see the miles added to your account within three
business days. 

We are building an airline that will earn your confidence and approval,
and we look forward to welcoming you on board your next United Airlines
flight.


Sincerely,

 Dan Thompson
Senior Manager




What is United thinking will happen as a result of a message like this?  What does any corporation hope for?  The only audience who would be pleased with a message like this is the Office of the General Counsel at United/Continental.  It certainly shows no cognizance of the much-touted effect of authenticity, intimacy, and a real conversation that is one of the best things to come out of Web 2.0


Your thoughts?

Monday, June 11, 2012

Ecommerce customers as "audience", merchandising as "content"

We've started to think of our various digital media investments as ways of aggregating and/or monetizing a digital audience.  Obvious, perhaps, but leads us to think about things in new ways.


Consider ecommerce, for example.  From the standpoint of audience, ecommerce is a way of attracting an audience by interesting them in buying something.  An ecommerce site has, in this way, a lot in common with a content site:



  • The research for the purchase is of course, great content in and of itself.

  • The merchandising of the purchase, aside from not derailing the transaction, can please and delight the customer as well

  • The cross-sell and up-sell options are opportunities to start new cycles of research, merchandising, and purchase


It's a bit like playing cards for money as opposed to playing cards for fun.  The cards pull in the audience, and playing for money makes the cards more exciting.

Monday, June 4, 2012

Services Innovation

It's a truism, at least in VC circles, that "services busineses don't scale".  In the very basic sense that services are provided by a human (I'm talking about real services businesses here and not XaaS businesses) and that more services requires more humans, this is, of course, true.


But there's motion in the ocean in services, and it's worth paying some attention.


What's new?



  • Crowdsourcing.  By chopping up a services function into minimal parts and farming the minimal parts out to a large crowd of temporary workers, one can do hefty projects cost-effectively, use "time slices" of otherwise-expensive experts, or even achieve novel insights (as with prediction markets).  Crowdsourcing is an extremely interesting area for Valhalla.


(Crowdsourcing actually reminds me of RISC ("reduced instruction set computing"), where a processor is designed to use a small instruction set at high speed and efficiency instead of a CISC ("complex instruction set computing") architecture where each instruction is specialized but requires variable cycles to execute, hurting predictability.  Crowdsourcing = RISC, "conventional" services = CISC.  Well, CISC did win out more or less (although RISC is making a comeback in GPUs.  But we digress).)



  • DoGooders.  A significant number of youths want to do good, and are actually doing good.  Teach For America is sort of the paradigm for this kind of thing.  I don't know if it's significant compared to my youth, but as these new service workers come into NoGooder jobs later on they're going to want those jobs to have some kind of significance beyond the paycheck.



  • Death of the professions.  I know the most about medicine here, which is transforming from a profession/craft business into an industry.  Since the drivers are the same, I expect we are seeing the same thing in accounting, law, science, engineering, and teaching.  What does it mean to have "professionals" without a professional esprit de corps or, more appropriately, a professional code of ethics?  I don't know, but we're going to find out.


Enough for one day.  Your thoughts?




 

Friday, June 1, 2012

Hospitals: Still in the Middle Ages

I had occasion a year ago to blog about my experiences as a customer of the hospital system.  With a relative this week undergoing elective surgery, I am reminded forcefully of how antiquated, creaky, and dysfunctional the healthcare business is, as a business.


My relative's surgeon, his PA, the nurses on the ward that he oversaw, and all of the staff, were individually superb.  It would be hard to find a group more knowledgeable, capable, and caring.


As an organization, however, the hospital was really really creaky.  When we showed up for admission, we were directed to a waiting room for "same-day surgery", where the three staffers promptly disappeared for something on the order of an hour, turning out the lights in their office and leaving us with no clue where we stood or when things would change.  The hour of our surgery approached, when our surgeon happened by in the corridor.


"Why are you still in street clothes?" he said to us.  "I'll fix that." And he went backstage for a few minutes and produced one of the missing nurses.


With the surgery in progress, we were told to go downstairs to another waiting room where we could get a paging device that would let us know when we could visit in the recovery room.


Downstairs, the same thing: nobody in charge, a bunch of patients sitting around.  The staffer in charge had gone away some time ago.  No idea when she would be back.  Maybe 20 minutes later she sauntered back in.  Gave us a pager.


After two hourse had passed (the length of time we had been told the surgery would last) another staffer came around and collected our pagers.  They were done with them for the day.  No problem: security would tell us when the surgery was over.


Security, it turned out, was the lynchpin of this hospital's operation.  Security knew everything; for the first time that stressful day, we felt someone was in charge.  Someone was acting as if a regular process might help patients and their families.


All's well that ends well.  The surgery went well and we are recovering.  And, once again, most of the individuals we dealt with in the hospital were superb professionals.  But somehow the hospital doesn't work as an overall organization.


Why not?  Thoughts?

Friday, May 25, 2012

Why I'm So Fond of my Fitbit

I got a Fitbit a few weeks ago, and I'm really fond of it.


Not in any perverse way.  It's what Apple product fanboys and -girls say about Apple products: it just works.


What's going on?



  1. Elegant hardware design.  It's a nifty little hi-tech clothes pin, with two-tone colors and the fabled One Button interface  (In all honesty, I have mixed feeling about One Button interfaces: there are invariably secret button pressing combinations that you have to remember; might be easier to just have another button).  But I'm carping.  The design is satisfying and elegant.

  2. Does one thing well.  I think the old debate between having one device to do everything or multiple devices has been settled in favor of multiple devices.  Most people I know have more than one mobile or portable device, and have use cases for each.  In FitBit's case, the one thing is measuring footsteps and altitude changes (well, OK, maybe that's two things, but the idea is to measure your level of activity during the day.)  (And then again, The FitBit Ultra also tries to measure your sleep quality; I think the job it does here is suboptimal; maybe should be left to another device.)

  3. The one thing it does well is a big plus for me.  I could see myself becoming one of those Quantified Self people; I love having the seamless feed of my activity into my diet software; I sort of have a vision where other stuff feeds in as well.  I don't know if I'll start wearing one of those headbands for sleep EEG waves, but I am toying with a FitBit Aria wireless scale.  If only the scale is accurate enough (I've had bad experiences with previous digital scales).


What's not to like? 

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Competitive positioning

A lot of our companies have a hard time with competitive positioning.


Maybe I'm a nerd, but it seems pretty straight ahead to me.


I take my playbook from Hammacher Schlemmer.  When they have something in their catalog, it's either "best" or "only".  Maybe, once in a blue moon, it's "first" as well.  But "first" has all too brief a moment in the sun before it has to become "best" or "only" or die.


So my formula for competitive position is something like: "<Widget> is the <only-or-best> <solution> with <benefit(s)>"



  • "VHS is the only videotape format with 3 1/2 hours recording time" (I think that was the number)

  • "Baby aspirin is the best medicine for preventing heart attacks" (Maybe that's true, maybe not, but you get the idea.)

  • "Hydrogen is the only fuel with no greenhouse emissions."


Thoughts?

Friday, May 18, 2012

United/Continental Seat Snafu

I flew out to the Bay Area this week, and found, when I went to check in for my outbound flight the day before my departure, that my seat had been changed from the Economy Plus aisle seat I had booked six weeks before to a middle seat.  (If you're not a Slave of United, Economy Plus is the front of the Economy cabin where there's actually enough leg room to sit without cramping.)


I called United, and the customer service woman I spoke with told me:



  1. She couldn't get me a better seat than the window seat I could see on the website

  2. This was an ongoing and known problem, one more result of IT glitches in the merger of the two companies.

  3. There would probably be seating problems for "six months or more" in the future.


I'm not sure all the parts fit together here.  What kind of snafu would re-shuffle the seating map?  Was everyone reshuffled?  Just me?  Why?  How?  And why couldn't someone go over the mistakes by hand and improve the lot, at least, of the "elite status" flyers?


But assume it's all true, what does it say about the future of global industry?  If every time there's a merger it means a churn-o-genic event like this takes place, how can mergers be adaptive?


Coincidentally, I was going out to a "maker movement" conference in Palo Alto, the Make Magazine Hardware Innovation Workshop (a terrific conference with a very hot new tech category), and what these are aiming to do is eat the lunch of large manufacturers.  If a nimble 10-person organization can, say, build cars like Local Motors (one of the presenters at #MakeHIW), why on earth will you need a GM or a Toyota in the future?


Can someone hurry up and disrupt United-Continental?  Or maybe disrupt all mergers?

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Lessons learned in online marketing; still a lot to learn

For reasons historical and accidental, I've ended up in charge of most of Valhalla's marketing and public relations.  For those who follow my posts, it's not the most natural fit for a reformed geek.  But I'm really enjoying learning about it.


Some of the big lessons so far (and probably obvious to anyone in the field):



  • Marketing online is much more like a conversation than a lecture.  The audience is stuck in the lecture.  The online audience can click away in a beat.  People linger online over what engages them, and the main thing still that engages people online is conversation.

  • You have know what your audience is thinking.  Putting yourself in the mind of the personae you are talking to online is the best way to come up with engaging content that will get and hold their interest.  At each turn in a blog post or a tweet, I try to have in mind what my ideal reader is thinking at that moment and let that insight guide what I write.

  • Measure, test, measure.  Online you can measure almost everything.  Even branding becomes measurable -- or, our entrepreneurs assure us, will soon become measurable. And the medium is superb for perpetual testing and improvement.  Doing A/B testing is just a best practice, it's table stakes for anyone wanting to do online marketing.


Please let me know what I'm missing. 

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Great audience and panel at #LeadingEdge2012

Great event in Atlanta this morning.  Big crowd, lots of energy, lots of questions, and one of the best panels I've been on in a while:


Dan Homrich (@TheRedWave), CEO Smartsoft Mobile solutions


Tiffany Trent, Director of Strategic Solutions at First Data


Tim Cannon, VP of Product Management at Jackson Healthcare


Caroline Van Sickle, CEO Pretty in My Pocket (PrIMP)


Good mix of B2C, B2B, security, payments, beauty, enterprise apps.


Here's a pdf of my presentation (although it's more Pinterest-like than textual):





Mobile_Apps_–_Past,_Present,_and.pdf
Download this file



 

Monday, April 30, 2012

Investment Checklists?

One of my New Year's resolutions this year was to read more "long-form" material.  After reading Nick Carr's scary book The Shallows I became aware that my interest and ability to read anything longer than a paragraph or a screen was atrophying, so I resolved to get back in the saddle.


Which led to my reading another great book, Atul Gawande's Checklist Manifesto.  If you haven't read it, do so.  He shows that setting up a "checklist"-style process is essential to avoiding mistakes in areas as diverse as the surgical operating room, the cockpit of an airplane, and, yes, a VC firm.


For better or worse, the sponsor of a deal generally gets excited about it (if they don't, it's probably not a great deal!) and tends to, ahem, overlook certain shortcomings of the deal.  Having a checklist in place is a way to make sure that all the i's are dotted and the t's crossed.


Your thoughts?

Saturday, April 28, 2012

Come hear me speak on "Future of Mobile" at #LeadingEdge2012

Going down to Atlanta to give a talk on Future of Mobile to what has been a terrific audience in the past.  Looking forward to it



Tag-letter-page1

Monday, April 23, 2012

Thinking about "Consumerization of IT"

I've been doing a lot of writing -- or at least content generation (I don't think PowerPoint really counts as writing) -- about mobile lately, or about the explosion of "new clients", or about the consumerization of IT.  I'll share the stuff here as it comes out.


Unfortunately, none of these terms does any justice to what's going on.  I think we're witnessing the end of the PC/client-server/desktop web era and the beginning of a new era.


What marks the new era (in no particular order)?



  • Diversity of clients

  • Portability of clients

  • Mobilization of "real" computing

  • Beginnings of ubiquitous computing (a meme where you control all the computing resources available to you by carrying an identity/authorization around with you in a mobile client of some sort)

  • Cloud-ification of the back end.

  • Rise of the cloud service provider

  • End of the mechanical disk drive

  • Big Data-fueled applications

  • Video as the "new text"


Very interesting.  More later.

Friday, April 20, 2012

Why People Don't Trust Companies (or at least don't trust their publicity)

I was at an all-day conference on online PR.  I'm not a real PR person, but I drive Valhalla's PR.  I also know what I don't know, so I hoped I'd get something out of an all-day klatsch on measuring PR effectiveness online.


Good information, for the most part.


But the bloggable thing was the exercise we did in the early afternoon: each table in the big room had to handle a synthetic online publicity crisis.  A video was uploaded to YouTube showing child laborers in our (fictional) coffee plantations in Brazil.  Kids saying, "Oh, yeah, I don't get injured most of the time."  Stuff like that.


We had five minutes to react, and then found out that our own people said the facts of the video were probably authentic.  And then moms began to blog about us online...


I said to our table, "why not just tell the truth as we know it: yes, the footage is genuine; yes, this is a situation we're going to get on top of; yes, we are acknowledging it."


Everyone at the table was horrified: we couldn't do that, it would "escalate" the crisis.


And no one else in the big room of 300 brought it up.  An acknowledgement wasn't even on the table.


My wife tells me I'm nerdishly honest, and there's something to that.  If someone had laid out a plan to acknowledge the damaging publicity in some face-saving way, it would have been an improvement on what I was suggesting.


But everyone's response was to "keep it from spreading", just the thing we had been told in a panel an hour before was the way _not_ to handle a crisis.


Oh, well.  I guess there are nuances to PR we amateurs don't get.

Monday, April 9, 2012

Agile and GTD

I know something about Agile methodologies for developing software, albeit at the 30,000 ft level appropriate to a Mere Suit.


I know a lot more about GTD, being a deep addict of many years' standing.


It seems to me they have something in common.


Weekly reviews = ends of sprints


Projects/folders/multi-step tasks = stories


etc.


Any thoughts from the Agile-oisie?

Friday, April 6, 2012

Wisdom of Fights?

A lot of attention has been paid to the "wisdom of crowds", with great discussion about whether, when, and how crowdsourcing gives accurate appraisals of situations.  We are the wiser for it.


But very little talk about another widespread belief, and perhaps a distinctively American one: I call it the "wisdom of fights".


I thought of this earlier this week watching yet another discussion panel where the MC clearly believed his job was to get the panelists to start disagreeing with one another.


Why?  Is there some intrinsic virtue to disagreement?


It's a widespread belief.  Our justice system believes that both defense and prosecution should unabashedly attack one another's positions, with the clear implication that this process will surface everything a jury needs to reach a decisions.  The judge is required so the combatants will fight fair, but there's no notion that the fighting itself is suboptimal.


Politics: the debate format has pretty much supplanted the speech format.  If we let Romney poke holes in Obama's positions and Obama poke holes in Romney's, we'll know as much as if we had read through thoughtful presentations of each of their positions and then come to our own conclusions.


"Let's you and him fight" is a very popular news format today, and most of the criticisms decry the lack of civility in the format, not the lack of veracity.


What makes science work is that both sides agree that a certain experiment will falsify a theory if it goes wrong.  Because the test is connected to the theory as a whole, something of significance takes place in the disagreement.  It's profound disagreement.


So much of the "wisdom of fights" disagreement is shallow: it's finding out that someone didn't publish his tax returns, that someone won't answer a certain question, that someone is vulnerable to a humiliating analogy or insult.  The disgreement isn't under test in any way, except in the trivial sense that someone who stands up under repeated insult has some kind of staying power.


The wisdom of fights is very suspect.

Monday, March 19, 2012

Gordon's Law

Some years ago, as a soon-to-be-ex-AI guy, I came to a realization that I immodestly named "Gordon's Law": it's easier to program us to act like computers than it is to program computers to act like us.


If Gordon's Law were not so, we would have voice recognition instead of "interactive" voice menus ("press 3 if you've despaired of leaving this menu", etc.).  We would have automatic Root Cause Analysis rather than trouble ticketing systems.  We would have online advertising tailored to our wants and current projects rather than "personalization".


To be sure, there is Watson, and there is Deep Blue, and my wife told me yesterday there's some software competing for crossword puzzle champion of the world.  But in some sense -- and I include Siri  here -- these are parlor tricks.  As Joseph Weizenbaum found out years ago with the software psychotherapist Eliza, there are some clever ideas that simulate humans to humans.  They don't wear well.  There's talk of having Watson do medical diagnosis, but there's also talk of people wanting to throw their iPhones out the window when it turns out Siri really doesn't do a very good job at all of understanding what we want or what we want to know.  And if Watson ends of doing decent medical diagnosis, I'll eat my hat.


Why should Gordon's Law be true?  Aren't our brains "just" meatware?  Isn't everything, as Stephen Wolfram says, a computation?


I don't know, but I do know that we work well together -- information devices and humans -- when we do what we're each good at.  We don't pretend to be machines and they don't pretend to be humans.

Friday, February 17, 2012

The Metadata Problem

I am not a metadata expert.  I have a couple of friends who could run circles around me in terms of depth and breadth of their experience.  But I do have opinions.


I've always thought that the logical person to append metadata -- the person who brings the metadata in -- is also the least likely to person to know which metadata will be of interest.  Downstream, the consumers of data will have their separate -- and diverse -- metadata "agendas", if you will.  The originator doesn't know what those agendas are (and probably can't know, since it changes over time).  And, of course, the consumers of data don't know what metadata apply to a particular dataset without examining it.


In addition, the task of appending metadata is an add-on: it's something extra you have to do.  What incentive does the originator of a dataset have to do this, other than charity?


Tagging systems like delicio.us have solved a part of this problem by a bottom-up system of tagging where metadata are tagged onto datasets retroactively by any user of the system.  These systems don't satisfy metadata zealots because the vocabularies aren't controlled, but, as the Wikipedia article on tagging says, things work out.  the vocabularies are usable and typically converge, or at least don't diverge too badly.  The crowd is, if not wise, at least not clueless.


It would be even better if there weren't a separate tagging operation at all.  In a no-tagging operation, some workflow that the user was going to do anyhow would implicitly add metadata.


Typical use case here: when a user drags an email to a "junk" or "spam" folder, the mail management systems can infer that the email can be tagged as junk or spam.


I struggle a lot to get proper metadata in my personal information cloud, by dragging emails to folders and tagging.  The payoff is that search works pretty well for me in tracking things down when I need to.


Your thoughts?

Monday, February 6, 2012

Connected TV

Reading a bunch about marrying Internet and traditional TV today, trying, among other things, to suss out how the ecosystem is going to develop.

One insight I had today: people will not prefer smart TVs, if they end up preferring them at all, because they've got one fewer box. The history of phones, smartphones, and now tablets shows that people pick their boxes because of functionality, not box count. People cheerfully carried around blackberries and dumb phones together for years, one for email, one for voice. Today people have a phone and a tablet and a laptop, all for slightly different use cases, each picked for excellence of function.

My guess would be people will do the same for TVs. We will cheerfully combine legacy set top box, new box, and maybe even smart TV, if each excels at some purpose we want.

Friday, February 3, 2012

Money is a vector, not a scalar

We were having a discussion about "throwing good money after bad" the other day, and I found myself blurting out "well, after all, money is a vector, not a scalar."

I'm sure you all remember (from your linear algebra class, perhaps) the difference between a vector quantity and a scalar. A scalar quantity has a magnitude while a vector has a magnitude and a direction.

"Good" money and "bad". What are these but an additional dimension for money? In a bad investment the quantity of the money grows while its goodness shrinks; in a good investment they grow together. Additional money in a bad investment grows smoothly in quantity but has a discontinuity as it leaps from bad to good.

There are lots of discussions about money that acknowledge its vector nature. "Dumb" money and "smart". "Patient" money. The "velocity" of money. "Easy" money (large first derivative of money with respect to effort).

Maybe just a dumb metaphor. Your thoughts?

Friday, January 27, 2012

Private Equity Fund Performance

Bronwyn Bailey, who heads Research over at the Private Equity Growth Capital Council, turned me on to a great research paper by Harris, Jenkinson, and Kaplan on private equity performance.  The authors have the mildest of goals: to say what we actually can say about private equity performance.  They then do what all of us should have done -- do some careful time series analyses of data from the few research sources available.


Their results?  "Average buyout fund returns in the U.S. have exceeded those of public markets for most vintages for a long period of time".  And "average venture capital fund returns in the U.S., on the other hand, outperformed public equities in the 1990s, but have underperformed public equities in the 2000s".


Worth a careful read over the weekend, I think.  And, if it's not asking too much, maybe a bit of a counterpoint to the witchunt about private equity fund compensation.

Monday, January 16, 2012

Connected Everything


Connected Everything – Our theme for last year’s Mobile Future Forward was “Connected Universe, Unlimited Opportunities.” It was one of the central themes of this year’s CES (and is likely to be for many more years). From health monitors to Sony Vita, from treadmills to autos, connectivity is driving new features, behavior, and hopefully consumer demand.



This prediction from Chetan Sharma's thoughtful review of CES struck a chord. As the Internet becomes the World Network of choice, replacing closed and proprietary networks with an open multiple-purpose one, the number and kinds of devices hanging off the network proliferate.

Friday, January 13, 2012

Valhalla Partners StorageFest II

We had our StorageFest II on Jan. 10 up in NYC.  Fantastic event.  As Dave Vellante of Wikibon said:




Follow other traffic on the event at #storagefest.



(One of) my big takeaways from the event was: the different levels of the data stack have to talk to one another.  We got some Big Data storage clients talking with storage experts at our event, and the results were: Big Data needs storage that serves various needs, not just the same old file and block workloads.


Interested to see how that works out over time.


Thoughts?