Swordfish with Seaweed Salsa, Couscous

None of us is fasting this year, so CrummyCook made dinner last night while Debbie hobnobbed with movers and shakers.

Your basic Black Salt-driven meal, with nice fresh swordfish.  Israeli couscous also spoke to me, as it does frequently, and I listened.

I was sick of the usual oil-and-acid marinade + soy-derived flavors.  Fortunately Epicurious came to the rescue with Swordfish with Seaweed Salsa Verde.

(Here’s their version of it.)

I’m a fan of seaweed, although Debbie is not.  The peppy copy for the recipe inspired me to believe the other flavors in the salsa might cover up the seaweed taste:

Chef Kenney says that combining the herbs for the salsa verde with seaweed really gives this dish "that fresh-from- the-sea flavor.”

Trusting in Chef Kenney, I forged ahead.

I accompanied it with couscous made with dried fruits, cinnamon, and ginger.

There’s a Crummy photo of the salsa.

And here’s how the swordfish looked with the couscous.

It worked out.  Debbie loved it, and was not put off by the seaweed (although she gave a telltale wince when I told her what it was before she tried it.)

Red Oceans and a Good Competitive Slide

 

My last post mentioned the idea of a “red ocean” in connection with the market for a new startup.

Unfortunately, with still too many dollars chasing too few independent VC thinkers, red oceans are the norm amongst venture-backed companies rather than the exception.  This happens because lemming-like investors pile onto an idea that some leader takes on and fund three, four, or more startups with substantially the same product or service in substantially the same marketplace.

In any case, this puts a premium on the presenter to properly account for their competition.  I think there are three principles here for pitches that meet the needs of investor audiences:

1. Be Respectful of your competition.  I talked about this at some length in an earlier post.  Gist of it show that you do not underestimate them, but have a plan for overcoming them.
2. Focus more on incumbents than startups.  This is very good marketing advice in any case.  For the most part, your customer prospects will have heard of the incumbents – the gorillas or others in your space – before they will have heard of your startup rivals.  There’s no sense educating them about your rivals if they haven’t heard of them already.  So it just makes sense in a customer pitch to show how you are superior to the existing players rather than the striving new ones.  This applies to the investor pitch as well.  The main thing is to get your potential customers to try something new, and the main thing your investors will care about is likely how you will do that.  (Of course, you should have slides in reserve about your competitors in case they ask.)
3. Have a crisp Hammacher-Schlemmer Promise.  Very important for investors as well as the market.  I posted about this here.

What Else Counts in Presenting a Hot Market?

There’s more to describing your market to an investor audience than its size.

As discussed in the previous post, the issue of whether or not a large amount of money in the market is changing hands is more important than its raw size.

At least two other points deserve consideration:

• Is it a red ocean?  In case you’re not familiar with this term, please take a look at the Blue Ocean Strategy website, which has links to a bunch of materials from the group that thought this up.  A red ocean is an ocean red from the blood the many competitors are drawing from one another, with no one getting an advantage.  Sadly, many venture-funded markets today are red oceans for the simple reason that copycat investors fund multiple instances of the same company.
• Is it an Enthusiast, Early Adopter, or Early Majority market?  Or worse.  The basic text here is Geoffrey Moore’s “Crossing the Chasm” (website here).  Each kind of market values different things in an product or service, and mistaking one for the other can kill a venture.

That’s all for today.  Sorry for the rush.

Tofu Fried Rice

Just fogging the mirror here: I made a tofu fried rice dish for Debbie and me on Thursday night.

I’m resuming weekly crummycooking: I will try to blog about it.  But it’s much less ambitious and more quotidian than previous years.  More back to the original thesis: Debbie deserves to be spelled on cooking regularly.  And I can do it.

Market Sizing: Why and How

Quick PaaP Test: Someone walks up to you at a party and wants you to join their teleportation company.  Do you care if the market for teleportation is big?

Well, what you care about is not whether the market is big or small, but whether or not you can make a lot of money in it.  And that depends.

Some big markets are already done; the players are set, the money is flowing, there’s no room for newcomers to make a difference or make a score.

Think soft drinks today.  A huge market, but no big transformations.  It’s trench warfare: a few points of share for Pepsi, a few points for Coke.

You would want a market where a new change was happening, an old order was about to blown away, and there was a real chance for newcomers to grab a lot of new business.

So, #1 characteristic of a market: is a lot of money likely to change hands soon?

I call this a “big wind”.  Is a big wind blowing in this market?

#2 question: how much of that big wind can the teleportation company get?

Savants call this the “addressable market”, and it’s not a simple question to answer.

To answer it right, you have to have a model of how money is going to be taken away from the incumbents, how the customers are going to shift over, what will be the reasons that will pry the first, second, and third waves of customers away from the old solution.  And you need to quantify those waves.

#2 characteristic of a market: a bottom-up analysis of addressable opportunity.

Sadly, most market sizing work in presentations is the opposite of this:

	What Investors Want to Know	What the usual pitch contains
Big Wind	Is a lot of money going to change hands in this market?	Is this a big market?
Addressable Market	A bottom-up analysis of how customers will transfer to new solution	“If we could just get 2% of this [huge] market we’d be rich”

You see what’s wrong here?  The usual pitch contains easy answers to non-problems; investors want hard answers to real problems that the business might face.

Please Stop Complaining About How Busy You Are - Meredith Fineman - Harvard Business Review

Please Stop Complaining About How Busy You Are - Meredith Fineman - Harvard Business Review

Great observations, but doesn't go to the heart of the matter: people protest how busy they are so that they won't seem idle.

It's like the women in "Schindler's List" who prick themselves and put blood on their cheeks and lips so they will appear robust and won't be "selected".

The "uber-busy" are afraid they'll be flagged as members of what Marx called "the reserve army of the unemployed" which seem increasingly a feature of our times.

The Needless “Market Need” Section

Instead of a“framing slide” as the way to begin a pitch, most entrepreneurs are coached to start a pitch with a long section – the longer the better – on the “market need” for which their product or service is a solution.

It’s not uncommon for a pitch deck of forty slides to have 15 or 20 on this topic, covering these kinds of issues:

• The absolute misery of people who suffer from the problem
• The vast numbers of people affected
• The profound inadequacy of existing “solutions” to the problem
• The size of the affected market.

Nothing wrong with this kind of discussion in and of itself, but the first words on the first pitch are probably not the place to do so at length.

Why?

Because pitchees will rapidly sort into three groups:

1. Those who understand the market-need argument and agree that the market is a big one
2. Those who understand the market-need argument and think it’s not a big one
3. Those who don’t know where they stand but are willing to stipulate that the market need is big in order to see what you have to say about: who your team is, what your solution is, and how much it’s going to cost them (in other words, the stuff that should go on the framing slide).

Emphasis here is on “rapidly”.  I would guess I go into one of these three buckets midway through the first slide on the market need.

If my experience is typical – and the investors I’ve spoken to seem to agree that it is – then the Solution Pitching approach to Market Need to have one slide on market need, not twenty.

What might be on this slide?

• The problem: “people spend collective years driving cars to work.”
• Some argument about size: “Commuters spend $40B per year on autos, public transit, air travel, and rail.”
• Some argument about market adoption: “Commuters have not adopted teleportation in the past because 10% of the transmitted people were not successfully re-constituted on the receiving end.”

So, enough detail so that your audience knows what problem you’re proposing to solve, why it’s a big potentially lucrative market, and why the market will be ready for your solution.

The rest of the “market needs” slides can go into the back of deck as an appendix in case more detailed questions come up.  There will certainly be more discussion about the market, and I will say more about it in a subsequent post.